Report Summary
Wildfires in the United States are intensifying in both frequency and severity, with climate change acting as both a driver and consequence of these escalating disasters. Over the past decade, wildfire seasons have lengthened, economic damages have soared, and vulnerable populations have faced increasing risks. The latest Los Angeles wildfire is not an anomaly, it is the new normal.
This report provides a data-driven analysis of U.S. wildfires, using real fire data from NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) to examine wildfire trends from 2016 to 2023. A time series analysis using SAS Viya software shows that the U.S. experiences an average of 95,137 wildfires annually, with projections indicating further increases in the coming years. Additionally, wildfire intensity—measured by Fire Radiative Power (FRP)—suggests that most U.S. wildfires fall within an intermediate intensity range, though certain regions experience significantly higher fire energy outputs.
The report also highlights regional disparities in wildfire risk, with states in the Interior West and Pacific Northwest coast facing the highest combination of wildfire frequency and intensity. However, risk is not solely determined by fire frequency; Wyoming, despite experiencing fewer fires, has the highest average FRP, making it particularly vulnerable. California stands out as the most wildfire-prone state, leading both in wildfire occurrence and FRP values.
Beyond environmental impact, wildfires disproportionately affect certain demographic groups, making data-driven decision-making essential for mitigation and response efforts. By linking U.S. Census data with wildfire records, this analysis identifies the most at-risk counties in California— Lassen, Trinity, Butte, Shasta, Inyo, El Dorado, and Glenn. Within these counties, Hispanic and Latino populations, particularly children (5–17) and seniors (65+), face heightened risks due to socioeconomic vulnerabilities, limited healthcare access, and pre-existing health disparities.
To effectively allocate resources, improve evacuation strategies, and protect the most vulnerable populations, data must be at the core of wildfire mitigation and adaptation plans. Decision-makers need timely, accurate data to ensure that support reaches the right people at the right time. As wildfires become more intense and unpredictable, leveraging data for proactive planning is no longer an option, it is a necessity.